Making and Managing Goals

How does one distinguish a goal that's inflated from a goal that's difficult to reach, but, in fact, reasonable and reachable? This is what I have been thinking about all week. Coach Jesse believes that goals can be mathematically determined. One needs to base them on certain measures taken during training and racing. This seems to really work for him and his athletes. For example, he says in an early blog entry just after completing a very fast 10K, that, "Based on my 6-miler performance (5:33 pace), I used the run calculator to back into my 5k equivalent assuming the 10k was considered “flat”. This resulted in a 16:32 5K equivalent on an average course and a half marathon goal for Hyannis of 1:16:54. Assuming I lose another 2 pounds before then I get: 1:16:54*(1-0.0062 X 2 pounds) = ~1:16:00 for a final Hyannis Half goal and a 5:48 pacing strategy using the Garmin right out of the gate. If it does go down this way, I’ll no doubt be in for another PR and on track for my 2008 season goals……" I used that a part of that particular post because you can see how everything is so calculated. There are formulas that when applied reveal the correct goal for your next race--based on real, cold data. Jesse went on to do a 17:04 at Hyannis, which was a PR, I believe, despite that he didn't quite make his 1:16 time goal. But that's actually not relevant to my blathering right now. What I'm really fixated on is that he has a way to calculate a goal for himself, and he then believes that goal is achievable because he believes in his method of calculation. He believes. That is key, I think. You have to believe. The problem I have is that I don't buy cold calculations. I want to--and in a general way they do work--but I can't help but wonder about the intangibles that go into achieving a goal or even simply racing well. Here is a short list of things that cannot be calculated:

• One's desire
• One's belief in her ability to complete, endure, and perform
• The weather
• One's focus in a race situations
• One's ability to do deal with the unexpected--e.g. a flat, a bad patch of road, a fall, getting of course on the swim, etc.
• The effect that no competition or too much competition has on one's psyche
• How rested or not rested one is going into a competition
• One's perception of how rested or not rested one is going into competition
• One's experience racing in general, racing triathlon in particular, and racing a certain distance more particular still
• and so on.

• Recently Jesse wrote a race report on the Sudbury Sprint in which we both just competed. In this post he challenged his readers/athletes to be patient with their training. He evidenced his own history as proof that consistency and hard work over years and years really works. The post is very inspirational, so definitely check it out. I commented that some of us are coming late to the game, and have little patience because we are on the down hill portion of our own "life race" (e.g. -- we're facing 40 really soon). He commented back to me as follows:
• "Mary: And when you are 46, you’ll be faster than you are now with consistent training! We’re patient, we’d be happy to help you get there. That’s the beauty of this sport; when athletes get into it later in life, they can continue to improve even though their age says they should be slowing down. Just ask your teammates: Keith Manning, Maureen Wattley, and John Barrett.
• BTW…your performance at Sudbury this year was a 7.0% improvement over last year, which tells me a couple of things:
• 1) You had a larger improvement over one year than any of my performances above.
• 2) This percentage applied to your Timberman result from last year gives in a 23 minute improvement. This based only on speed potential without accounting for durability improvements, which will be significant for you.
• Also, you were amazingly well rounded in your splits Sunday, which tells me you are becoming a triathlete. Welcome to the club!"
• When I read that comment I got teary. No lie. I actually cried. It might be the most encouraging thing anyone has said to me in years. (So if you read this, Jesse, thank you).
• And I do buy it a little. I buy that I'm better than last year at this time. I buy that I will see improvement in my 1/2 Iron time this summer barring something tragic happening to me on the course. I buy that I will improve every year for many years to come. I buy that I will be more durable come my big race. But I don't buy the number. I don't buy 23 minutes. I'm not saying that I won't PR by 23 minutes in August. I just don't believe that my performance last Sunday indicates I will go 5:02.I want to believe that is what it indicates. But wanting to believe and actually believing are two different things.
• (I bet you could guess I am an agnostic.)
• Jesse believes the numbers don't lie. If we were talking about his performance, and not mine, improving by that much would be possible, because HE BELIEVES in the numbers. I, however, can think of a million reasons why it shouldn't be a real goal to chop 23 minutes off my time. The biggest one is that Sudbury Sprint was my first triathlon ever last year. OF COURSE I IMPROVED by 7%. I honestly expected to improve more than that! A month and half later, in early July of last season, I did a the bike leg of a longer race in over 20mph, which is a 7% improvement over what I had done at Sudbury last year. So you see...
• Okay. Enough of me going on and on. The point is, I don't know how to make realistic goals that are based on something real. I don't know how to make goals that I can and will believe in.
• How do the rest of you make goals for yourself?